Are Weekly Inflation Forecasts Informative?

نویسندگان
چکیده

برای دانلود باید عضویت طلایی داشته باشید

برای دانلود متن کامل این مقاله و بیش از 32 میلیون مقاله دیگر ابتدا ثبت نام کنید

اگر عضو سایت هستید لطفا وارد حساب کاربری خود شوید

منابع مشابه

Are Analysts' Forecasts Informative to the General Public?

C to the common view that analysts are important information agents, intraday returns evidence shows that announcements of analysts’ forecast revisions release little new information, on average. Further cross-sectional evidence from returns around the announcements confirms that revisions are virtually information free. Daily announcement returns used in the literature appear to overstate the ...

متن کامل

How Informative Are Interest Rate Survey-based Forecasts?

This paper studies the information content of survey-based predictions for the Brazilian short-term interest rate. We perform vector autoregression analysis to test for the dynamic relationship between market expectations of interest rates and spot interest rates, and a single regression forecasting approach. Empirical results suggest that surveys may be useful in assessing market expectations ...

متن کامل

G-7 Inflation Forecasts

This paper compares the forecasting performance of some leading models of inflation for the cross section of G-7 countries. We show that bivariate and trivariate models suggested by economic theory or statistical analysis are hardly better than univariate models. Phillips’ curve models fit well into this class. Significant improvements in both MSE of the forecasts and in turning point predictio...

متن کامل

Conservatism in Inflation Forecasts

Abstract: This paper examines the extent to which professional forecasters exhibit conservatism in their announced inflation forecasts. Conservatism occurs as a result of a secondary objective captured in the forecaster’s loss function: they would like to avoid having large forecast errors, but also would like to avoid making large revisions to previously announced forecasts. As a result of for...

متن کامل

Forecasts and Inflation Reports: An Evaluation

This paper argues that the most important aspect of central bank transparency is communication about the future path of the policy rate. Despite great progress on transparency, communication on this topic remains shrouded in an obscure code. Central banks can enhance transparency by providing, in decreasing order of importance: i) an unconditional forecast of the policy interest rate; ii) an un...

متن کامل

ذخیره در منابع من


  با ذخیره ی این منبع در منابع من، دسترسی به آن را برای استفاده های بعدی آسان تر کنید

ژورنال

عنوان ژورنال: Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics

سال: 2009

ISSN: 0305-9049,1468-0084

DOI: 10.1111/j.1468-0084.2008.00523.x